Lagging Economic Indicators-Cause for Optimism?

Tuesday, October 7th, 2008 by Cass Chappell, CFP®

lagging-economic-indicators-cause-for-optimism

JP Morgan puts out a “Guide to the Markets” each quarter.  Interesting nugget….
                                                   gold nuggett

Past performance is no guarantee of future results (people are giving that statement more weight now than ever!).

The slide contains two separate charts.  The top one shows the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index year by year since 1970.  It shows the S&P 500 index return for the 12 month period following each low in consumer sentiment for the five times since 1970.
 
The bottom chart shows the S&P 500 index return for the 12 months following a spike in unemployment of at least .5%.  In May of 2008 we had just such a spike.

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